When people ask me what is the biggest macroeconomic risk to the India markets and the economy my answer today is the rising Trade Deficit which has been growing month on month and year on year over the last several years. The Trade deficit for the month of July 2010 was USD 13 billion and […]
Read MoreAs we start off on the month of September it is quite interesting that a majority of investors are negative on the markets and are looking at a 5-10% correction. The general consensus also seems to be for a Fourth quarter rally in the markets. The current month started off on a positive note with […]
Read MoreThe last one year has been a time where the inflation in India has surprised on the upside on a consistent basis. The initial push for the inflation came from food prices as we had a poor monsoon season which resulted in runaway inflation in a large number of key commodities like pulses, sugar, milk […]
Read MoreFinally we see the markets breaking out of the tight range that it was trapped over the last three months. Although the underlying trend was clearly bullish the markets have taken their own sweet time to move up mainly due to global uncertainties, wide skepticism in the markets as well as significant selling pressure from […]
Read MoreOver the last several months the fear of deflation has again picked up and has resulted in the yields on German Bunds falling to all time lows and yield just around 2% for a 10 year paper. Similarly despite the Fiscal deficits in the US and the huge borrowings by the US Government the 10 […]
Read MoreThe month of July was a difficult month for the markets where there were wild swings in individual stocks driven by the reported results for the quarter ended June 2010. While individual performances varied a log the indices remained more or less stagnant with a 1% move for the benchmark indices. Companies that reported strong […]
Read MoreTill some time back one had to monitor the movement of the US Government Bonds to find out the risk aversion in the system. However I believe that the German Bunds are a better indicator of the risk aversion or risk taking the markets as today among the developed world the German economy is the […]
Read MoreOver the last couple of weeks we have seen concerns from the Eurozone reduce and the news flow from that part of the world has become less and less negative. Most the countries in the Eurozone that have had issues related to their ability to borrow and replace their earlier borrowings have been able to […]
Read MoreAs expected the markets have held on well and have continued to climb the wall of worry as is the case in bull markets. Most investors are still unconvinced and the biggest concern is valuations although everyone is confident of the growth trajectory of India. The IMF over the weekend upped the forecast growth for […]
Read MoreI find the hypothesis difficult to digest that all markets will remain coupled for all times to come. I have always maintained that decoupling plays out over a longer time frame and in the short run due to the linkages of the financial markets the movement of asset classes across countries tend to be linked […]
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