What drives currency movements is one of the most misunderstood concepts in the financial markets. Most economists and analysts are still fixated on the interest rate differential theory which has outlived its utility in most situations except in crisis situations where Central Banks increase rates by substantial magnitudes inorder to support their currency. Back around […]
Read MoreThe year 2019 started off exactly I thought it should in the global context with a bounce back in the US Markets and a revival of Emerging Markets driven by low valuations and increasingly dovish outlook from most central banks. However India has underperformed significantly during this period with the markets absolutely flat YTD whereas […]
Read More2019 A YEAR OF DICHOTOMIES As I think about the year 2019 ( I also wonder why all forecasts are made at the end of December only) there are a large number of moving parts that will influence the markets. Global Central bank positioning is varied as compared to normal tightening and loosening cycles which […]
Read MoreMARKET OUTLOOK POST CORRECTION The markets have gone through a significant churn over the last few months driven by various factors which started from the general overvaluation in Mid and Small Caps to rising concerns on rising crude oil prices & inflation, Fed rate hike fears, Trade Wars, INR fall and then the eventual crash […]
Read MoreIf you want to buy cheap please wait for the next bear market, stocks will be very cheap then, but you will not want to buy. This is possibly not the right sentence to start the article however when I am continuously bombarded by questions like, markets are at a PE of 28 now it […]
Read MoreI read too many brokerage reports who are commenting on 2019 elections and want investors to make strategies based on a possible outcome which they are trying to forecast. Factually that is essentially unforecastable and as such taking an Investment Decision based on that is foolish at best. In my view irrespective of who wins […]
Read MoreThe Indian Economy after going through a phase of resurrection today is placed for a strong growth revival over the next few years. Most of the pain related to Bank NPA’s, Poor Consumer demand as well as a lack of investments is now behind us and despite new macro concerns related to a potential pick […]
Read MoreI had not written a blog article since the beginning of 2018 as the movement of the markets were more or less in line with my expectations of a Sell Off in February/March driven by global factors. The script played out exactly as expected. The only thing that came up separately was Mr. PNB which […]
Read MoreThe year 2017 was a good year for Indian Investors after subdued returns of the last two years. The broad market indices rallied by around 28% with significant Alpha generation from selective stock picking which we also successfully did. The year started off with a great amount of scepticism (always good for the markets) due […]
Read MoreOver the last few days we have seen a selloff in the stock markets and from initially blaming it on the North Korean crisis the narrative has slowly shifted to “Poor Economic Growth”, mostly by people who now see there being a divergence between the performance of the Indian markets and the rest of the […]
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