My view when the markets bottomed out in the month of March 2009 was that the structural issues that the Western economies are facing along with the huge leverage on the balance sheets of various financial institutions will imply below par economic growth combined with low commodity prices and low inflation will imply a huge […]
Read MoreI just thought that I would write a piece on what I think are the worst logics being presented so as to justify some actions. The primary one going around these days is that If low rates could lead to economic recovery then the Western world would be booming – This logic is being used […]
Read MoreI thought that I would write something on issues on which I do have views but am not myself totally (maybe) convinced. There are so many pros and cons for contra views on the same subject that it is difficult to come to a single view. Whats the future of gold – Gold bulls abound […]
Read MoreWhat a month this was. As I wrote at the beginning of the month, there seemed to be too much pessimism going around in the markets, both domestically as well as globally. As such positive outcomes of key events always had the potential of creating a strong market upmove. Cash positions were high and derivative […]
Read MoreThe month of August started off with reasonable optimism backed by both domestic and international factors. On the domestic front the pick up in the Monsoon rains, lower than reported inflation data as well as an anticipation of some economy friendly measures from the government continued to support the markets. Internationally positive data points from […]
Read MoreMonopolistic behavior and the perseverance of monopolies are unfortunately getting a boost due to the activism by various constitutional authorities at this stage. Due to the mining issues in Karnataka private sector mines had to shut down and NMDC was given a mandate to increase production and supply. However it could not meet the targets […]
Read MoreWith vacation season being on in the Eurozone newsflow from that part of the world has suddenly fizzled out and the risk trade has come back in right earnest. Global markets that were as it is itching to move up after a period of uncertainty have continued to build on the rally started by Draghion the last […]
Read MoreThe most hotly debated topic and the words that we read in the papers related to the weather these days is the phenomenon of El Nino. As such I decided to do some research on the same to see what impact it has actually had on monsoons in the past. This phenomenon is also being […]
Read MoreThe last few days have been full of so many events both local and global. It is important to take a perspective of the same to arrive at some sort of view on the direction going forward. The first few data points were from the domestic side where we saw the Index of Industrial Production […]
Read MoreI have been a strident critic of RBI’s monetary policy stance over the last several months and most economists have been critical of this stance as they have focused on the ‘Inflation Bogey” to support RBI’s growth destroying monetary policy. Although RBI has historically had a good track record in terms of maintaining macroeconomic stability […]
Read More