I had become negative on the markets at the start of the 4th quarter of 2014. The reasons were not any long term negatives related to India but mainly because of the fact that the markets had run ahead of fundamentals, the expectations were too high, the new government had just taken over and the […]
Read MoreWe are now 5 months into 2015 and the Indian Markets have gone up by just around 1.5% in these 5 months in INR terms and are almost flat in US Dollar terms. This, I accept is somewhat better than the scenario I initially thought would play out. However we still have one month to […]
Read MoreI had written about my prognosis for the economy and the stock markets on the 20th of April via my note “The Juggernaut is rolling”. The thesis for the same remains and over the last few days we have seen the stock markets sell off quite a lot. The Nifty and Sensex have now reached […]
Read MoreSugar is one industry and sugarcane one crop which should ideally be beneficial to both farmers and sugar mills. Sugarcane is a cash crop which is very durable, requires low upkeep and relatively less prone to the vagaries of weather. In case of sugar mills it is a business where the risk of what they […]
Read MoreAs we enter into the 11th month of the new government, the initial feeling of Euphoria is giving way to some despondency and a feeling that nothing much has changed and there is no move forward. While it is true that there are elements of policy as well as implementation that could have moved faster […]
Read MoreWe are at the end of the first quarter of 2015 and it has played out more or less like I thought it should. The NIFTY went up by around 2.5% this quarter. After an initial up move during the month of January the markets cooled off significantly. This was driven by reality of a […]
Read MoreThe last few weeks have reinforced the rate cycle assumptions that low global interest rates are here to stay longer and to that extent give a greater opportunity to RBI and the Indian Government to replug and accelerate the economy. Low inflation globally has pushed Global Central banks in the developed world towards more and […]
Read MoreRaghuram Rajans last interest rate action has taken a lot of people by surprise. The jury is still out on whether the rate cut 40 days before the scheduled policy and at a time when the Union Budget was inflationary in general was called for. As I seen things the main reason for the cut […]
Read MoreAs the budget speech started and Part I of the speech wound down I actually thought that it was Mr Chidambaram speaking and not Mr Jaitley. However Part 2 did wave me up from the slumber and increased the rating of the budget substantially. THE GOOD First of all the thing that pleased me the […]
Read MoreBUDGET AND THE MARKETS, REALLY? The annual season of pre-budget expectations and discussions around how this budget is going to be trend setting for the Indian Markets and the Indian Economy have been buzzing for the last few weeks now. After having watched Budgets being presented as I have been working in the field of […]
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