UNDERSTANDING THE “ECONOMIC RECOVERY”

As the Covid 19 crisis blew out in India in March this year there was significant economic disruption due to the closure of the economic domestically as well as various restrictions that came up on cross border trade. The “Recovery” from the shutdown in some sectors has been much better than expectations while others continue […]

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THE WEEK THAT WAS

The last week was the start of the results season and we saw a few large companies report earnings. Stock Markets continued to rally, albeit at a slower pace with the Nifty rallying by around 1.5% with the Midcap Indices also rallying by the same amount. The confidence of a V Shaped recovery is growing […]

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POST LOCKDOWN REBOUND, DEEPER RECESSION AHEAD

There is a great deal of excitement these days around the post Lockdown rebound which was imminent as consumption, investment etc almost everything was completely shutdown for nearly 75 days. There would always be pent up demand, already committed investments, incomplete projects, pre monsoon works etc which would happen. Moreover the absolute basic of consumption […]

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LOCKDOWN DIARIES THE GROWING MARKETS & ECONOMY DISCONNECT- WHAT WILL BE THE END GAME

After the brutal selloff in March we saw the markets staging a strong pullback in April to finally give up a large part of the gains in May. The Indian Market behaviour is not in line with a majority of other markets where the selloff has not been so severe. India is one of the […]

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LOCKDOWN DIARIES-DAY 35 – INDIA AN OPPORTUNITY LOST

As we entered into the Lockdown with an Economy that had been growing below par for several years there was initially a view that we could possibly emerge out of this stronger and India as an Economy and one contributing towards a possible replacement of global supply chains as people shift out from China as […]

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LOCKDOWN DIARIES- DAY 30 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE

We are into Day 30 of the Lockdown now. Stock Markets over the last few days have been gyrating in a range with days of big sell offs followed by bounce backs as Market participants try to grapple with global newsflow and domestic developments. FB investment into Reliance created a significant rally in that stock […]

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LOCKDOWN DIARIES- DAY 25 A WEEK OF HOPE

The last week as we went through the first phase of the Lockdown2 can be called one that of hope. The number of new cases in India have stopped accelerating, recoveries have picked up and the number of testing has increase on a daily basis. Global stock markets help up well this week and newsflow […]

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LOCKDOWN DIARIES- DAY 23 PULL BACK RALLY STALLS

Over the last three days the Stock Markets have tried to stage a rally but the rally has stalled in most countries as the severity of the economic impact has started to set in. One of the major reasons that the markets need to give up some gains is because the pull back rallies have […]

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LOCKDOWN DIARIES – DAY 18- ECONOMIC IMPACT IS SEVERE PULLBACK RALLY TO STALL

This is Day 18 of the Lockdown which was supposed to be 3 days before the original lockdown ended. However in the conference call with the PM today most of the CM’s have asked for an extension till the 30th of April which I think is Fait Accompli now. The economic and market impact need […]

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LOCKDOWN DIARIES – DAY 15 A BEGINNING OF THE END ( No not of the world)

I decided to write after a gap of a day as usually it is tough to find new things to write every day and for the content to be useful and different. The last two days have been interesting in more ways than one. Day before I had written that markets will start moving up […]

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