Joining the China Bubble Debate, results etc.

Over the last few weeks the news flow on how some prominent global commentators believe that the Chinese economy is a bubble and that it is likely to burst sooner than later has been gaining ground. The key for us to see is that whether it is based on proper analysis or is it wishful […]

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HEIGHTENED VOLATILITY?

The next three months are likely to see several forces playing on the markets which are likely to exert pulls on the markets on different sides. On one hand we are likely to see positive contributors towards the markets which will be in the form of improving earnings picture. The third quarter results in general […]

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ALL IS WELL

Back from an excellent vacation and also having watched the big blockbuster movie “3 Idiots”. An amazing movie in which for the first time I actually saw the audience clapping after the end of the show and a movie liked by all and sundry right from small kids to the old. Given the fact that […]

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Year end thoughts

Proceeding to a vacation at the year end, I thought I would just put out some year end thoughts and also try to summarize what I thought should happen in various market segments and how it has actually panned out. The year obviously has been an amazing one with most dire predictions going out of […]

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GOLD – THE NEXT MOVE, a period of consolidation

As per expectation gold prices have rallied sharply over the last three months before cooling off by around 8-9% over the last few days. As I had written in September, gold had made a very strong technical move as it moved above the USD 970 per ounce level and my view was that this will […]

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Is the US Dollar Index bounce back enough to cause a market crash?

As all of us know that the US Dollar Index has been continuously losing in value since March 09, which is the time since when the stock markets globally started to rally. The Dollar Index was a relatively unknown entity to the layman till a few weeks back. However due to the persistent talk about […]

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Long term technicals – Turning extremely positive

As I wrote in a previous note although my fundamental bet is that the next year could be difficult in terms of the percentage return expectations from the markets given the fact that specifically the Indian markets today are trading at around 15x consensus 2011E earnings. However technically the picture is turning much more bullish. […]

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Dubai Crisis, a buying opportunity, only impact could be higher oil prices

The Dubai World debt repayment freeze crisis has hit the world over the last three days and has caused significant damage to the markets over this period. Should this be of any major concern and will it have any lasting impact on the markets, I really do not think so. I think most people have […]

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Agricultural mess and food inflation – India's weak underbelly

On an overall basis India is set to grow aggressively over the next few years. However there is one segment of the economy which is getting totally mismanaged and there is no emphasis on any structured manner of either improving agricultural production or dealing with issues like drought, excess rain etc. Indian agriculture even after […]

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Can the huge fund raising plans by Chinese Banks stall the rally

Over the last couple of days more than 5 large Chinese banks have filed for raising fresh equity in order to support their balance sheets after a year of break neck lending in which the Chinese banks have set a record on new loans. The magnitude of this fund raising is likely to be very […]

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